A closer look at Josh Ockimey’s 2nd half struggles

Josh Ockimey courtesy of photos.smugmug.com/Spring-Training/Red-Sox-ST
Josh Ockimey courtesy of photos.smugmug.com/Spring-Training/Red-Sox-ST

Hey guys, Josh Ockimey, 1B, Greenville Drive (Red Sox) was enjoying a breakout season in 2016.   The 2014 5th round pick was hitting .308/.450/.566 on June 1st.

I did a piece on him at the end of April and in it I dug into the numbers courtesy of MLB Farm to see what he was doing differently this year compared to 2015 when he struggled in the NY/Penn league.  Here’s a link to the piece. http://notesfromthesally.com/2016/04/25/thoughts-josh-ockimey-1b-greenville/

After a decent June, Ockimey has slid into a massive 2nd half swoon. Since July 1st he’s got just 19 hits in 135 at bats or .141/.284/.304.

His hot start and current cold streak could easily be explained away with Babip (.437 in April and May) and (.204 since July 1st).  Fatigue could be playing a roll too as this is his 1st attempt at a 140 game season.

Still he was definitely doing some things differently this Spring in contrast to last year. He was making significantly better contact, taking what the pitcher was giving him, going the other way more (putting more balls in the air, rolling over on the outside pitch less often).  So I thought I would do a quick look at the batted ball and see if he’s reverting back to his old habits.

This is what Ockimey was doing in Lowell last season. All data courtesy of MLB Farm.

 

Strikeout 33.6%

Balls put in play to his pull side 47.5%

Ground Ball Rate 38.3%

 

When things were going well

Opening day – May 31

Strikeout 22%

Ball’s put in play to pull side 42.5%

Ground Ball Rate 36.6%

 

Since July 1st

Strikeout 24.4%

Ball’s put in play to pull side 48.4%

Ground Ball Rate 38.7%

Ockimey is still making significantly better contact then he did last year, but he’s pulling the ball quite a bit more now then he did in the Spring, and his ground balls are up.

While these trends are definitely factoring in, it’s difficult to quantify how much in relation to fatigue and potential other factors like injury. But it is interesting.

 

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